Uncertainty and growth disasters

نویسندگان

چکیده

This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution output growth. Second, relation highly asymmetric: A rise in sharp decline lower tail growth whereas it has much smaller and insignificant impact its upper tail. We build model which are both endogenous: rapid adoption new technology raises may occasionally cause measured productivity to decline. The equilibrium negatively skewed leads thicker left

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use natural disasters, terrorist at...

متن کامل

Disasters and Development: Natural Disasters, Credit Constraints and Economic Growth

We demonstrate, using a simple two-period equilibrium model of the economy, the potential effects of extreme event occurrences such as natural or humanitarian disasters on economic growth over the mediumto long-term. In particular, we focus on the effect of such shocks on investment. We examine two polar cases; an unconstrained economy where agents have access to perfect capital markets, versus...

متن کامل

Nber Working Paper Series Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use natural disasters, terrorist at...

متن کامل

How disasters can lead to personal growth

Society & Culture[1] Society & Culture[1]Trauma [2]Norway [3]Forskning.no [4] Follow-up support can make the difference between post-traumatic growth and post-traumatic stress. Recognition from work colleagues is all-important for what happens afterwards. It is well known that many people who have experienced tragic events suffer post-traumatic stress reactions later. And paradoxically, many al...

متن کامل

Logistic Growth with Random Density Independent Disasters

A stochastic differential equation for a discontinuous Markov process is employed to model the magnitude of a population which grows logistically between disasters which are proportional to the current population size (density independent disasters). The expected persistence or extinction time satisfies a singular differential-difference equation. When the number of disasters, in the absence of...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Review of Economic Dynamics

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1096-6099', '1094-2025']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.04.002